Technical Analysis Guide

Here we are going to look at technical analysis and how it can help you make big profits trading forex markets.

Here we are going to show you the logic and how you can use technical analysis to get you a trading edge to earn consistent profits.

The most common query in regard to technical analysis is:

How can it possibly help you trade when the fundamental supply and demand equation is not known?

The answer is it takes into account all the supply and demand fundamentals.

How?

Technical analysis works on the basis that the fundamentals are instantly discounted in the price ( and if you think about it this is perfectly logical in today’s world of instant communications ) and all fundamentals immediately show up in price action.

But technical analysis does something more:

The price of anything ( including currencies ) is not just a reflection of the supply and demand fundamentals, it is a reflection of how people view them.

Human psychology ultimately determines the price of anything.

So, the equation for the determination of price is:

Supply and demand + human psychology = Price

Recurring price patterns

Human nature is constant and this is reflected in recurring price patterns in the market that can be traded for profit.

By studying charts and a whole host of technical indicators traders can determine the odds of where prices will go next.

In essence technical analysis in directly studies the fundamentals and human psychology.

Most short term price spikes are caused by emotion – Not the supply and demand fundamentals and these are easy to spot using technical analysis.

Technical analysis is an art not a science.

You need to practice your art, however if used correctly, it can help you put the odds in your favor and help you spot trading opportunities.

Currency markets are ideal for technical analysis as they exhibit long term trends either up or down in price.

By locking into these trends you can trade them for profit and as the major trends can last for months these profits can be huge.

In part 2 of this article we will go through how to use technical analysis correctly to profit from these long term trends.



By: Sacha Tarkovsky

About the Author:

Technical Analysis Trading

If you look at any chart of currencies you will see that they move in trends. These are of course easy to spot in hindsight.

Timing your entry levels and following these trends is of course harder and the aim of all currency traders, however 95% fail and lose their money.

If you are using or want to use technical analysis you must know the basics of trend following and here are some tips to help you make profits.

Let’s look at 3 types of trend and then look at some tips for trading them:

1. Long term Trends

As currencies reflect the underlying health of the economy and the economic cycle there are currency trends that last months or even years and this is the primary trend.

2. Intermediate Trends

These last from anywhere between a few weeks and months and are reactions within the larger primary trend.

3. Short term Trends

These last for a few days to around a couple of weeks.

All the above can be traded for profit and the trends you want to trend are down to personal trading style and taste.

Trends not to trade

Many of you will have wondered why we ignored daily and intra day trends.

The answer is they simply cannot be traded.

While you can see them in hindsight, the data in a day is unreliable, as all daily and intra day volatility is random.

If the data cannot be used to get the odds in your favor you will lose when trend following, with any form of technical analysis.

Trend following in very short periods is a mugs game and that’s why you never see a day trader with a track record of profits.

So how do you catch the trends and enter with the best risk reward?

Well this is the challenge for all FOREX traders and as we have said it is more difficult than most people think – that’s why 95% of traders lose.

Here we will give you some tips when currency trading for catching currency trends and turning them into profits:

1. Understand the concept of support and resistance and trade breakouts.

It’s a fact that most major market moves start from new market highs NOT market lows, so if you use breakouts you will catch the really big moves.

2. When Buying Support or Selling resistance DON’T Predict

This is a major error made by novice traders. Then buy into support and “hope” it will hold.

When you are trend following this is a good way to lose. You are predicting where as you should be acting on confirmation.

Always wait for a test of support and use a momentum indicator to indicate a change in direction in your favor BEFORE entering the trade.

This will confirm support or resistance has held and the momentum has reversed you then have the odds in your favor

3. The differences between Long and short term trend Following

The concepts are generally the same, but there is one difference in my view between following long and intermediate trends and short term ones.

With long term and intermediate trends you can trail stops in short term trading you must use a target.

Because the profits are smaller and moves shorter in the latter, they can disappear quickly, so you should “hit and run” and bank profits on the hitting of your set target.

When doing the above we always set the target lower than the consensus.

If prices are generally targeting a level and the market is looking for it we would bank early.

4. Patience

Trend following involves being patient and staying on the sidelines until you see an opportunity that fits your methodology.

Don’t be in a hurry to trade – Only trade when the odds are in your favour.

Catching trends and making profits from them is hard, but with the right approach and only trading when the odds are in your favour you can pile up some big gains

Good Luck



By: Sacha Tarkovsky

About the Author:

Understanding Technical Analysis

I have heard people lament how difficult it was to perform technical analysis and how they can never learn the skills. There were also many critics or fundamental believers that the stock market can never be timed and that we market technicians are wasting our time trying to beat the market using technical analysis. Technical analysis was thought to be a study of past price behaviors and critics were saying the past doesn’t reflect what will happen in the future. They are both right and wrong. They are right because technical analysis is not a crystal ball where it is 100% accurate. They are wrong because technical analysis reflects the human emotions happening on the charts. Do human change over the centuries? As far as emotions are concerned, fear and greed are human nature that will never change! Humans will still do insider trading even if it is illegal due to greed. We saw how corporate governance though tightened over the decades was not fool proof to these criminals. Humans will still fear losing paper profits and they will still fear declining stock prices leading to declining capital. All these emotions can be found on the charts as they happen. Ask yourself, how many times have you seen a stock price run up before news is released? Anticipation of shareholders? Well, maybe but how about insider leaking the news? Think about it.

Every night I study in details charts and it is through all these relentless efforts that I became very familiar with technical analysis. If a lawyer wants to win a case, he will study the case carefully and also refer to past cases. We all know lawyers earn big money, but it is really this hard work of preparation that justifies their huge pay. As a trader, we cannot slack too. Hard work and efforts must be put in to learn technical analysis. Long hours of studying these charts will enable us to be very proficient in chart reading and recognize buy or sell signal in a flash as the experience build up. There is no shortcut to success in trading as far as I’m concerned.

I started trading as a loser and often times am only interested to know which the next stock to buy is. This is not why legends made their fortune in the stock market. Every single book that I read, advocate us to study past charts and get familiar with all the chart patterns or price/volume relationship. Hence why shouldn’t we follow? After all, they are the ones who have done it and been there.

Remember, human nature never changed and this is the fundamental reason why technical analysis will work.

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Yours truly,

Decipher

Author of http://growmoney.blogspot.com

http://growmoney.blospot.com where my trading journey never ends



By: Decipher

About the Author:

Technical Analysis Trading

Investors who study stock charts and the data they contain to predict future moves in the stock market are called technical analysts. Usually technical analysis is not used for long term investing and is not concerned with the value or even the kind of company whose stock is being traded. Rather, it is used for short-term stock trading and once the projected gains are reached the stock is sold.

Technical analysis is based on the patterns that can be seen in stock prices when they are studied over time. The assumption is that all important factors such as company performance, world events and general economic shifts, have already been factored in by the workings of the stock market and are reflected in a stocks current price. Market efficiency, therefore, produces price changes that can be tracked and used to make investment decisions.

All of the attention in technical analysis is centered on precisely tracking ups and downs of stock price movements in great detail. Because long term investment is typically not considered it is not necessary to analyze a company’s future potential or try to predict its course over any long period of time.

It is not even necessary to find a stock moving up in order to make a profit. Indeed, either up or down movements can be profitable if recognized properly. As a safeguard stop-loss orders can limit exposure if the market does not move in the direction predicted.

As might be expected, hundreds of repeated patterns of stock movements have been noted and formalized over time. These are at the heart of the art and science of technical analysis and some are based on the basics of price “resistance’ and price ’support.’ Resistance refers to the highest level a stock price can be expected to meet before it falls again. On the flip side, support is the price at which the stock can be expected to rise in value again. Prices usually will bounce either up or down once they meet the perceived barrier of support or resistance.

Charts tracking the rise and fall of stock price movements are the most fundamental tools of technical analysis. Day in and day out technical analysts most often use bar charts. In a bar chart vertical bars are entered representing each time interval desired: weeks, days or even hours or minutes. The highest price of the stock during that period is represented by the top of the bar and the lowest price by the bottom of the bar. The small bars on the right and left represent opening and closing price respectively. Obviously, a wealth of information can be gained from a trained glance at a bar chart. The side bars let you know instantly what the spread was between opening and closing price, with a long bar signaling a considerable variation in stock price during the period represented.

Candlestick charts are another type of chart, closely related to the bar chart. The candlestick shapes, solid bodies used to show differences between opening and closing prices, are colored differently to indicate a higher or lower close. The lines or shadows by the shapes show the high and low prices reached during those periods. A red or black colored shape is used for a period when the stock price fell and a green or white shape when the price rose. Short shadows accompanying a green body is a bullish sign because it shows a stock which opened low and closed high. A red body with short shadow is, on the other hand, bearish, showing a stock which closed low after a high opening. All in all more than 20 different patterns are seen on candlestick charts, each denoting a different situation to the experienced eye.



By: Reginald T. Hobbss

About the Author:

Technical Analysis for Stocks

There’s no question about it, forex trading can somewhat be a risky venture. However, you need not fear to enter into trading because, despite the risks, there is also a promise of profits and the opportunity of becoming your own boss. You can mitigate your risks by acquiring the services of reputable forex brokers in the market. Plus, there are also tools like technical analysis at your command that will help you spot and take advantage of the ideal situations in everyday trading in the foreign exchange market.

What are forex brokers? These are people that offer you advice regarding currencies that will give you maximum profits in your trading because of currently skyrocketing prices in the market, as well as acting as an intermediary between you and the market itself. Forex brokers are experts in their field; that’s why they can help you greatly especially during your early days in the market. There are a lot of these brokers out there waiting to help you with well-meant pieces of advice and e-mails every day.

The wonderful thing about forex trading is that with the pieces of advice from your brokers, you can maximize your profits by using technical analysis to supplement the advice from your brokers. Technical analysis uses data projected in graphs (bar, candlestick and line graphs, to count a few) in order to predict the movement of the market. These graphs provide you with a way to see patterns evolving in the foreign exchange market and take advantage of them when they show positive directions. Thus, with these graphs and your finance broker’s advice in hand, you are at a position to reap great profits in forex marketing.

In fact, these forex brokers also use technical analysis to identify patterns and come up with their daily pieces of advice for their clients. Every day, their staff looks at graphs to identify currencies that show a possible upward trend due to steadily increasing prices. Technical analysis graphs make use of data collated everyday, and, with the wonderful technology we are enjoying today, these data are updated in real-time and are easily available online. Most of all, access to the data is free to the public. That means no capital expenditures from your side except the money that you invest in the market.

Now, you may ask: If there is something as technical analysis to show you which way to trade in order to gain profits, why does one have to go to forex brokers for daily forex advice? The answer is actually very simple. It’s because you need to take advantage of the expertise of these brokers to make decisions. With a sizable staff looking at data everyday, they can identify things that you normally could not do on your own, especially when you are still a beginner and can easily be overwhelmed with forex data that you probably could not understand yet. Technical analysis, on the other hand, provides you with a way to double-check or prove the validity of your brokers’ tips. It is merely a backup tool, one that serves as a second opinion in tandem with tips from your brokers.



By: Jhoana Cooper

About the Author:

Technical Analysis Trading

So what is the best technical analysis? There are numerous methods and theories you can use and here we will separate out the best technical analysis theories and indicators which you can use for bigger profits.

There are two mistakes most novice traders make and here they are if you want to win avoid them!

Markets Move to a Scientific Theory

No they don’t and its obvious why – if they did we would all know where prices are going in advance and there would be no market! Markets move on uncertainty and that’s a fact.

There are theories that claim to be scientific but are nothing of the sort and they include – The theories of W D Gann, Elliot and his Wave Theory and the Fibonacci number sequence, avoid them or lose.

Forex trading involves trading the odds and you wont win every trade, but you can make big profits.

The More Inputs the Better

Today, we have super fast computers and complex software programs and many traders are under the impression, that the more complicated the method and the more inputs and technical indicators they use, the better – this is simply not true.

If it were, in the last 50 years with all the advances in technology we have seen, far more traders would win then they did 50 years ago – but they don’t.

The reason for this is – simple trading systems work best, as they have fewer elements to break and are more robust.

The best forex technical analysis is simple and if you want to succeed, you need to make sure your system is simple too.

How to Use Technical Analysis

Keep in mind that technical analysis has many advantages but it is NOT a science, it’s an art.

Your aim is the spot and act on high odds trading scenarios.

Forget about trying to pick market tops and bottoms and trade the reality of price change only and look to confirm price momentum is on your side.

In my view, the best technical trading systems use breakout methodology.

It’s a fact that most major trends start and continue from new market highs. If you can lock into these breaks and confirm them with momentum oscillators, you can make a lot of money.

The next article in this series on best technical analysis, will focus on building a simple, robust and profitable long term breakout system for profit.



By: Kelly Price

About the Author:

Understanding Technical Analysis

We have already looked at the difference between fundamental and technical analysis of currency trading in our “currency trading success” article, here we will concentrate more on the advantages of technical analysis for currency trading and how to build a successful system.

There are many different methods and tools utilized in technical analysis, but they all rely on the same principles – that price patterns and price trends exist in the market and that they can be identified and turned into profit opportunities.

Technical Analysis in currency trading is based on three core principles:

Markets Discount

The actual price is a reflection of everything known to the market that could possibly have an affect on price movement and includes supply and demand, political factors, and the market sentiment.

The pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, NOT the reasons behind the price movements.

Prices Move in Trends

Prices can move in three directions – they can move up, down or sideways.

Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect it usually, will persist and create a trend.

The market trend is simply defined as the direction of market prices, a concept that is essential to the success of technical analysis in currency trading.

Identifying trends in theory is simple; a price chart will usually indicate the prevailing trend as characterized by a series of waves with obvious peaks and troughs.

It is the direction of these peaks and troughs that constitutes the market trend, if they move up, the trend is bullish, if they move down the trend is bearish and of course if they move sideways then the market is in a period of consolidation.

History Tends to Repeat Itself

To a technical analyst in currency trading, the trader psychology that affects prices is extremely important, as human nature is repetitive and this shows up in repetitive price patterns.

This allows anyone using technical analysis in currency trading to predict where prices are likely to go next and traders can then act upon this information for profit.

The market price reflects everything

Technical analysis in currency trading is primarily concerned with price trends and everything that can possibly affect a currency is reflected in price action.

Technical Indicators

The logic of technical analysis for currency trading is universally accepted, and there are numerous ways to execute technical trading systems, with the huge amount of available indictors used either alone, or in combination.

We will look at the different indicators below and some that have proved highly effective in the technical analysis of currency trading. Any traders, who wish to profit from the currency markets, should consider these indicators.

Trend Indicators

A trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. The easiest way to spot trends is via trend lines, drawn below price lows or above price highs.

While basic trend lines have gone out of fashion in recent years in favor of more complicated indicators, they are still one of the most effective ways to technically analyze currency movements.

Support/Resistance Indicators

Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon reflects basic supply and demand and when prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a big move can follow very quickly.

Again, the best method for spotting and acting on these breaks is the humble trend line.

We believe that trend lines should be the basis on which ANY technical analysis of currencies should be based on – and the indicators below are for confirmation:

Volatility Indicators

Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices.

One great indicator to use is the Bollinger band.

Any trader should look at Bollinger Bands, as they represent one of the most effective indicators for the technical analysis of currency markets.

Not only is it good for predicting trend movements, but also it is useful for timing entry and exit levels, as well as when to increase or decrease position size.

Cycle Indicators

A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as elections, year-end monetary repatriation etc.

Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. A good example would be Elliott Wave theory. Cycle indicators however in our view are of little or no use, in the technical analysis of currencies.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time periods.

Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is generally highest at the start of a trend and lowest at market turning points.

Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, then an end of movement in the current direction could occur.

If however momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. Examples of momentum indicators include Stochastics, MACD and RSI.

The most effective momentum indictor is the stochastic and using stochastic crossovers to time entry and exit levels, can be highly effective.

Sentiment Indicators

Many technical analysts in currency trading monitor surveys of investor sentiment such as net trader’s positions and bullish consensus.

These indicators attempt to gauge the general attitude of the investment community, to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish.

These indicators are only to be used when extremes of sentiment are reached, either bullish or bearish.

If used in this way, they are one of the most powerful warning signs of significant market turning points and can be used in technical analysis of currency markets to huge effect.

Putting it all Together

Traders make money from the technical analysis of currency markets in many different ways, however we believe that trend lines backed up by just a few additional indicators (to help time market entry exit and stop levels) can be very effective.

The ones we favor are: Bollinger bands, stochastics and market sentiment indicators, as filters for traditional trend lines.

The best way to succeed in technical analysis of currency trading is to use a simple robust system based on trendlines and just a few filter indicators such as the ones above and you will soon find yourself catching the big trends that yield the big profits.



By: Sacha Tarkovsky

About the Author:

Technical Analysis

Investment basics: what is fundamental analysis and what is technical analysis?

There are two basic approaches in investing when it comes to analysing any security: fundamental analysisand technical analysis. These two are the keys to investment. Fundamental analysis looks at a particular company’s fundamentals like financial statements, net value of assets, balance sheets, gross profits, and price earnings ratios, and is used to determine if the stock being analysed and scrutinised is a long-term investment that will make profits for the stockholder eventually. Technical analysis is different and rather opposite, and focuses instead on the stock price and its concomitant patterns rather than looking at the inner workings of a company. These two approaches to investment will be examined here in this article, in depth and more carefully.

 

What exactly is fundamental analysis? It is the art of looking at the inner workings and basics of a company. Under this school of thought, the fundamentals of the company are what drives it and what makes it profitable. The underlying assumption is that the stock price will reflect either sooner or later the company’s profitability. The more profitable the company – the higher the stock price. It is that simple. Investors using fundamental analysis are certain that the price follows the profitability of the company. In this school of thought, there is less agreement as to the validity of technical analysis as compared to fundamental analysis with its focus on details of the inner workings of the company under scrutiny, but the appeal of technical analysis vis-à-vis fundamental analysis is the idea that one can make a profit faster and quicker than with a buy-and-hold approach, the normal result of fundamental analysis. However it should be noted that it is very hard to actually evaluate a company’s actual worth, and this is a long drawn process that needs a lot of research and reading. You need to know how read all about the company from annual reports and other reports, online and on paper.

Technical analysis is based on different assumptions vis-à-vis fundamental analysis. The assumption is that the market is made up of a colossal group of speculators behaving in predictable, recurring patterns. They may or may not be rational or fully informed. The challenge for technical analysts is to therefore find these recurring, identifiable patterns in the price movements and to act on them, because of a basic understanding of human psychology and herd mentality. Technical analysis also utilises several tools or techniques to look at trends and patterns on stock price charts. Nevertheless, the goal of all the various tools of technical analysis is always still the same – to actually attempt to predict the price movements of stocks. If the prediction made is correct, then one can make a lot of money, and vice versa. Stock charts will become an integral part of your life and education.

 

To conclude, fundamental analysis is the practice of looking at a company’s fundamentals, such as assets, value, profits and income statements, because the assumption is that the stock price will eventually reflect the true “fundamentals” of the company. Technical analysis, its opposite number, is the practice of studying a stock’s past prices and trends in an attempt to determine its future prices and trends, because the assumption is that the patterns to the stock price movements can yield valuable information. One approach is company-oriented and the other is price-oriented. Choose one of the two approaches to investment, or maybe try a mixture of both, for yourself and see how you fare for your investments.



By: Shawn Seah

About the Author:

Understanding Technical Analysis

By choosing the right technical analysis software, you may be able to lower your vulnerability to risk with your hard earned money. The way the stock market moves on a day to day basis is only evident with the right software and the right analysis.

Even the most successful and experienced trader can only gauge the insight they need to make the right choices with one very important tool, technical analysis software. The complete software can expose patterns, rises and falls, all with either line bar or candlestick charts that help significantly simplify investing for everyone, no matter your stock mortgage experience or ability.

Not to burst anyone’s bubble but you must have some direction and common sense to succeed in the stock market but technical analysis software can help one make the right decision and help them break down the technical analysis, stocks, bonds and currencies like never before.

When you sit back and think about it, technical analysis software is a lot like breaking down sports stats. Investors and sports fans alike look over and study graphs, charts, read outs and analysis like fans over batting averages and touchdowns.

When it comes to sports, your mind is like technical analysis software. You look at the touchdown passes by Peyton Manning in his career and then you look at Joey Harrington’s touchdown pass total in his career. After analyzing it, you can say Peyton is a better quarterback and would be a better fit on your team.

With the stock market, it’s a bit more complex but that’s what the technical analysis software is for, to make complex decisions about your money, easier to understand and make. When choosing the best technical analysis charting software for you needs, you must take into account your investor’s, trader’s or chartist’s needs and trading style. The financial instrument traded does not really play a major part in the decision process as almost all technical analysis (TA) software can chart stocks, bonds, commodities, forex, futures and options without any problems. The different types of technical analysis software separate themselves from the pack when you take into account of indicators the software has to offer.

Here are some examples of one of the most important aspects of technical analysis software, the indicator.

Trend indicators can be used in order to provide much needed information on the price trends. Trends are used to measure the persistence level of a certain price and whether it will move in a specific direction during any certain time. Trend indicators can be the moving averages, DMI, Linear Regression, MACD, etc.

Volatility indicators, such as the Standard Deviation, Average True Range, and Bollinger Bands should also be used if there is a desire to inform the model about a price volatility. Volatility is measured by the magnitude of the day-to-day variations and fluctuations in prices.

Price momentum indicators, for instance RSI, CCI, Stochastic and PercentR will measure the speed of the price moves throughout a sepcific time frame. Many times this type of indicators can be very useful.

Misc. indicators: There are also several other market strength indicators available such as the OBV, Ease of Movement, Chaikin Oscillator, MFI, and also different volume indicators.



By: Peter Johansson

About the Author:

Understanding Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the outlook of how future financial price will move based on an examination of past price movements. Technical analysis is a lot like a weatherman predicting it will rain or snow or if the favored team in the Super Bowl will cover the spread. You can gather the info you have and make an educated guess or assumption.

Charts are used in a technical analysis to show over a larger period of time how much a price has rose, fallen are stayed the same. Some of the charts used are the Line Chart, which is the basic chart type is a single point plot of the securities price.

Next up is the Bar Chart, which is most popular method of plotting a security price. A bar chart provides a plot of each price unit (open, high, low and close) for each period. The last example is the Candlestick chart, which is plot of the security price using all the four price points (open, high, low and close)

To keep up with discussing the importance and impact of charts in technical analysis, here are the things a chart helps us discover:

Overall Trend: This is accomplished by using trend lines, peak analysis or moving averages.

Support: Areas of the congestion and also areas of previously low, below current price marks support levels.

Resistance: Areas of the congestion along with previously high above current price mark and the resistance levels.

Momentum: Momentum is usually used to measure the oscillator along with such things as MACD.

Buying/Selling Pressure: Selling pressure becomes dominant when it falls below zero.

Relative Strength: This plot on this lineline over a larger period of time is able to tell you if the stocks are outperforming or rising as many call it or under performing or falling from the major index.

When talking about technical analysis, there are three rules of thumb and those are: Price serves as a discount, Price Movements happen for a reason and what is more important than why.

The first rule of technical analysis is “Price serves as a discount.” The main thesis here is that whatever the price is now, it reflects all the information. It’s like the theory “keep it simple, stupid. The current price represents fair and even value and can be the barometer for analysis.

The second step of technical analysis is “Price Movements happen for a reason.” This is the act of trying to predict when the market will fluctuate without probable cause and being able to spot when the spike on free fall will happen.

The last step regarding technical analysis is “What is more important than why.” This step is self explanatory, the current price is more important that the history of the price. Think about it, the price is the end result of the battle between the amounts of stock is available from a company versus the amount pf demand there is for that stock. . The objective of analysis is to predict the where the future price will go.

In the end, technical analysis is to stock what an inside reporter is to a football game. It’s a venue to obtain inside information so you can make an educated guess.



By: Peter Johansson

About the Author:

How to Trade with Technical Analysis